REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2013
18
SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
the TT dollar depreciated by 0.21 percent from
TT$6.3744 to TT$6.3878.
The overall deficit on Central Government
Operations for fiscal 2013 is estimated at
$6,485.4 million or 4.0 percent of GDP,
compared to an overall deficit of 2.3 percent of
GDP for fiscal 2012. Total Revenue and Grants is
estimated at $52,984.8 million or 32.6 percent
of GDP, of which Tax Revenue is expected to be
the major component, contributing $45,150.6
million. Capital Revenue, however, is estimated
to increase by more than ten-fold over the
receipts of fiscal 2012. Total Expenditure and
Net Lending is estimated at $59,470.2 million
or 36.6 percent of GDP, approximately the same
proportion of GDP as fiscal 2012.
The surplus on the Non-Financial Public Sector
Operations account contracted by almost 42.0
percent over the period October 2012 to April
2013. The widening operational deficit of $926.7
million on the Public Utilities account hampered
the performance over the period.
Net Public Sector Debt stock is expected to
increase by 6.9 percent from$69,156.8million in
fiscal 2012 to $73,916.8 million in fiscal 2013. As
a percentage of GDP, it is projected to decrease
from 45.0 percent in fiscal 2012 to 44.7 percent
in fiscal 2013.
The Net Asset Value of the Heritage and
Stabilisation Fund (HSF) rose to approximately
US$5.0 billion following an injection of US$42.5
million by Central Government in the third
quarter of fiscal 2013.
The Balance of Payments account recorded a
deficit of US$622.1 million in 2012, a reversal
from the surplus of US$752.6 million in 2011.
This reversal stemmed from the deterioration
in the external current account by 66.9
percent mainly on account of the decline in the
merchandise trade surplus. The capital account
continued to show signs of improvement as the
deficit was narrowed by 26.3 percent.
Notwithstanding the prevailing low interest rate
environment, private sector credit expansion
by the consolidated financial system remained
subdued during the first six months of fiscal
2013. Private sector credit expanded to 2.4
percent in March 2013, albeit at a slower pace.
At the end of March 2013, the year-on-year
increase in lending by the commercial banks
was up 4.5 percent; a marginal decline of 0.6
percent from October 2012. The persistent
weakness in credit expansion by commercial
banks to the private sector was further
reinforced by non-bank lending which recorded
a contraction in lending of 11.4 percent in March
2013, compared with a decline of 6.3 percent in
October 2012. Consumer credit granted by the
consolidated banking system has continued
to expand, increasing on a twelve-month basis
by 4.1 percent in March 2013, up from 2.9
percent in October 2012. In contrast, Business
credit granted by the consolidated system
has remained constrained; contracting by 3.1
percent in March 2013, compared with growth
of 2.1 percent in October 2012. Real estate
mortgage lending remained robust throughout
fiscal year 2013, up 15 percent in March 2013.
In light of the consequential accumulation of
excess liquidity within the financial system, the
Central Bank introduced various measures to
address the situation including the withdrawal of
$200 million from the financial system through
the issue of Treasury Bills and Notes and, in May
2013, the issuance of a $1.0 billion Treasury
bond.
During the period October 2012 to June 2013,
the weighted average selling rate for the United
States dollar (US$) depreciated marginally
by 0.13 percent to TT$6.4415 per US$ in June
2013 from TT$6.4333 per US$ in October
2012. The weighted average buying rate for the
US$ marginally depreciated by 0.34 percent
to TT$6.3878 per US$ in June 2013 from
TT$6.3662 per US$ in October 2012. On a
year-on-year basis fromJune 2012 to June 2013,
SUMMARY OF MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF T&T
