REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2013
25
SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
Production of ammonia fell by 9.4 percent to
2,683.7thousandtonnes,from2,962.0thousand
tonnes in the corresponding 2011/2012 period.
Output was significantly hindered by gas supply
limitations in late 2012, and plant shutdowns
in both 2012 and 2013. Ammonia exports also
contracted during the review period, falling by
3.5 percent from 2,656.0 thousand tonnes to
2,562.0 thousand tonnes.
Methanol production was likewise affected by
plant outages and natural gas supply limitations,
particularly in October and November 2012.
These setbacks outweighed production gains in
the2013period.Asa result,methanol production
declined by 1.1 percent, from 3,192.7 thousand
tonnes during October 2011 to May 2012, to
3,158.4 thousand tonnes in the current period.
Methanol exports also declined by 1.2 percent to
3,138.0 thousand tonnes, from 3,174.5 thousand
tonnes.
In contrast, the production of urea rose by 13.1
percent during the eight-month period, from
292.0 thousand tonnes to 330.1 thousand
tonnes. Total urea exports also increased, but at
a lower rate of 2.7 percent, from 296.5 thousand
tonnes to 304.5 thousand tonnes.
Sharply higher export prices were recorded for
ammonia and methanol during the October
2012 to May 2013 period, when compared to
the corresponding 2011/2012 fiscal period.
The urea price however underwent a more
extreme reversal. The monthly average Tampa
US Gulf Spot Price for ammonia increased from
US$667.00 per metric tonne in October 2012
to peak at US$685.00 per metric tonne during
November and December, before softening
steadily thereafter to US$600.00 per metric
tonne inMay 2013
(Figure 4)
. This resulted in an
average Tampa US Gulf Spot price of US$647.59
permetric tonne for the fiscal 2012/2013 period,
which was 17.0 percent higher than the average
of US$553.69 per metric tonne recorded over
the same period one year earlier.
Figure 4:
Petrochemical Prices (Ammonia,
Urea and Methanol)
Source: Ministry of Energy and Energy Affairs
The monthly average US Gulf Barge Spot price
of methanol trended upwards for most of the
October 2012 to May 2013 period, increasing
from US$392.00 per tonne in October 2012,
to US$421.00 per tonne in December 2012,
before declining to US$408.00 per tonne one
month later. Thereafter the price rose steadily to
US$474.00 per tonne inMay 2013, facilitating an
average US Gulf Barge Spot price of US$431.38
per tonne over the eight-month period. This
marked a 13.2 percent increase from the period
average of US$381.13 per tonne during the first
eight months of fiscal 2012.
The monthly average US Gulf Granular Spot
price forurea fluctuatedduring the reviewperiod,
declining from US$436.20 per tonne in October
2012 to US$402.75 per tonne in November
2012, before rebounding to US$430.00 per
tonne in February 2013. Thereafter the price
declined sharply to US$338.75 per tonne in May
2013. This yielded an average US Gulf Granular
Spot price for urea of US$403.30 per tonne
during the review period, 25.4 percent lower
than the previous period average of US$540.61
per tonne.
THE REAL ECONOMY
