REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2013
21
SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
The petroleum sector is projected to return
to positive growth in 2013, with a marginal
expansion of 0.5 percent, following successive
contractions of 3.9 percent and 1.0 percent in
2011 and 2012 respectively. Notwithstanding
this turnaround, a slight decline is anticipated in
the sector’s contribution to real GDP, from 40.2
percent in 2012, to 39.7 percent in 2013.
Themildlypositiveperformance inthepetroleum
sector in 2013 is predicated on the continuation
of heightened upstream exploration and
development activities, and higher production
levels for natural gas, liquefied natural gas and
methanol. These should slightly outweigh lower
crude oil, condensate, ammonia, and urea
output.
Exploration and development activity has
increasingly intensified in recent years and this
momentum is expected to continue during
2013,with six (6) rigs currently drilling inTrinidad
and Tobago, and possibly a seventh rig being
introduced before the end of the year. A rise in
natural gas production is expected during 2013,
as higher production levelswere recordedduring
the first four months of the year. Additionally, the
impact of the planned shutdowns in September
2013 is expected to be significantly reduced
as a result of successful negotiations between
Government and the upstream producers. LNG
production is also expected to rise compared
to 2012 on account of improved natural gas
supplies. In this regard, the industry has already
reported strong growth in early 2013.
The petrochemicals industry (Ammonia, Urea,
Methanol) is expected to register a mixed but
improved performance in 2013 as upstream
supply constraints ease. This follows the
industry’s generally negative performances
during the 2010 to 2012 period. The secular
decline in crude and condensate production
associated with maturing oil fields, and the
disposition towards the production of mostly
‘dry’ natural gas was expected to continue
in 2013, even as crude output appears to be
stabilising.
PETROLEUM
DRILLING
Petroleum companies drilled a total depth
of 87.2 thousand metres over the period
October 2012 to May 2013. This represented
a 5.7 percent increase from the 82.5 thousand
metres drilled during the comparative period
of fiscal 2011/2012. A 14.5 percent increase in
onshore drilling (from 38.8 thousand metres to
44.4 thousand metres), which outweighed a 2.1
percent decline in offshore drilling (from 43.7
thousand metres to 42.8 thousand metres),
provided the main impetus for the increase in
drilling activity. A total of 64 wells were drilled
during the first eightmonths of fiscal 2012/2013,
which was 7.2 percent less than the 69 wells
drilled one year earlier. Sixty-two (62) wells were
for development (down from 64), and 2 wells
were for exploration (down from 5), marking
decreases of 3.1 percent, and 60.0 percent,
respectively
(Appendix 7)
.
Notwithstanding the marginal decline in the
number of development wells, development
drilling
2
increased by 16.3 percent to 80.7
thousand metres (from 69.4 thousand metres,
one year earlier), in terms of total depth
drilled. The sharp decline in the number of
exploration wells was however, reflected in the
total exploratory drilling
3
depth which declined
by 50.2 percent to 6.5 thousand metres (from
13.1 thousand metres) during the period under
review
(Figure 1)
.
2
Development drilling
refers to drilling conducted to deter-
mine more precisely the size, grade, and configuration of
a mineral deposit, subsequent to when the determination
is made that the deposit can be commercially developed.
It entails drilling for hydrocarbons in an area with proven
reserves to a depth known to have been productive in the
past.
3
Exploratory drilling
refers to drilling conducted in search
of an undiscovered reservoir of oil or gas. It involves drilling
several test holes to determine the location of mineral de-
posits, in an area where little subsurface data about those
minerals is available.
THE REAL ECONOMY
