REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2013
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SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
from 9.3 percent in 2012 to 10.8 percent in 2013.
It is anticipated that China will continue to run a
fiscal deficit in 2013 of 2.1 percent of GDP, while
India will also continue to run a fiscal deficit of
8.3 percent of GDP in 2013.
LATIN AMERICA
Latin America as a region is expected to grow
in 2013 by 3.4 percent, up from 3.0 percent
in 2012. The larger countries of Argentina,
Brazil and Mexico are expected to grow by
2.8 percent, 3.0 percent and 3.4 percent,
respectively. Mexico’s growth can be attributed
to the continued recovery of the US economy,
strengthening
business
and
consumer
confidence and resilient exports. Growth in
Brazil can be attributed to the impact of the
easing of monetary policy and measures aimed
at boosting private investment. However, real
GDP growth for Venezuela is expected to decline
in 2013, down from 5.5 percent to 0.1 percent,
as the pace of fiscal spending declines. Further,
growth in private consumption is anticipated
to decline following the recent devaluation of
the Venezuelan currency and the tightening of
exchange controls.
Inflation in LatinAmerica is expected to increase
marginally from6.0percent in2012to6.1percent
in 2013. Inflation in Brazil is expected to rise from
5.4 percent to 6.1 percent in 2013, due mainly
to higher fuel prices and increasing healthcare
costs. In Mexico, inflation is anticipated to
declinemarginally from4.1 percent in 2012 to 3.7
percent in 2013 duemainly to its weak economic
growth. Inflation in Venezuela is projected to
continue to be the highest in the region and is
anticipated to increase from21.1 percent in 2012
to 27.3 percent in 2013.
Unemployment in Mexico is projected to remain
steady at 4.8 percent, while Brazil is forecasted
to experience an increase in unemployment
from 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent in 2013.
The current account balance for the Latin
American Region is anticipated to remain
ready for implementation, is expected to boost
growth in 2013.
EMERGING ASIA
2
GDP growth is projected in Emerging and
Developing Asia increased to 7.1 percent in 2013
from 6.6 percent in 2012. This can be attributed
to recovering external demand and continued
growth in domestic demand. China is expected
to experience accelerated growth in real GDP
from 7.8 percent in 2012 to 8.0 percent in 2013
on account of strong domestic demand in both
consumption and investment as well as renewed
external demand. The Indian economy is also
expected to expand by 5.7 percent in 2013, up
from 4.0 percent in 2012. This expansion can be
attributed to increased external demand as well
as recently implemented reformmeasures. One
of the main reforms implemented allowed for
greater foreign direct investment in areas such
as supermarkets and other retail sectors in the
Indian economy.
Real economic growth in Singapore is expected
to strengthen from 1.3 percent in 2012 to 2.0
percent in 2013. This positive trend is also
seen in Hong Kong, where economic growth is
expected to increase to 3.0 percent in 2013, up
from 1.4 percent in 2012. The news is similar for
the Korean economy with expected real GDP
growthof 2.8percent in2013up from2.0percent
in 2012. Growth in Korea can be attributed to
increased demand for exports which may lead
to a stimulation of private investment.
Inflation in Emerging and Developing Asia is
expected to rise from 4.5 percent in 2012 to 5.0
percent in 2013, reflecting anticipated economic
growth and a stable outlook for global food and
commodity prices. It is estimated that inflation
in China will increase to 3.0 percent in 2013
from 2.6 percent in 2012. Inflation in India is
forecasted to remain relatively high, increasing
2
Comprises China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Korea,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan Province of
China, Thailand and Vietnam.
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
