REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2013
6
SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
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Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook April and July 2013; Fiscal Monitor April and July 2013; Regional
Economic Outlook 2013; Various Central Bank and Statistical Offices.
rate of 8.0 percent and 5.7 percent respectively
in 2013.
In response to policy actions of the European
Union, financial pressures in the Euro Area have
weakened. However, growth in the Euro Area
continues to be weak with real GDP for 2013
expected improve marginally from the -0.6
percent contraction recorded in 2012. Growth in
2013 is anticipated tobe positive inGermany and
Ireland, however, Spain, Portugal and Greece are
expected to experience negative growth rates.
Global inflation is expected to fall marginally
from 3.9 percent in 2012 to 3.8 percent in 2013,
which is reflected in the Advanced Economies,
the EuroZone andAdvancedAsia.While inflation
is expected to remain relatively high in the
Middle East and NorthAfrica (MENA), it fell from
10.7 percent to 9.6 percent in 2013. Inflation in
Emerging and Developing Asia, Latin America
and the CIS is expected to marginally increase.
Globally, the fiscal balance is expected to
improve from -4.3 percent in 2012 to -3.5
percent in 2013. The fiscal balance in Advanced
Economies, the Euro Area and Latin America will
improve from -5.9 percent, -3.6 percent and -2.7
percent in 2012, to -4.7 percent, -2.9 percent
and 1.7 percent in 2013 respectively.
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
The global economy has been grappling with
the impact of the financial crisis and global
recession since 2008. Countries in the Euro
Area as well as the United States and Japan
were hard hit, however, there have been signs
of recovery in the global economy. Unlike past
global recessions, economies are recovering at
three speeds in 2013. Emerging and developing
economies appear to be growing at a fairly
robust pace. Countries such as the United
States and Japan appear to be on the path to
growth. However, countries in the Euro Area are
still not fully on the road to recovery.
In this regard, the rate of growth of World output
is anticipated to marginally increase from 3.2
percent in 2012 to 3.3 percent in 2013. Growth
in the United States continues to be slow but
positive at 1.9 percent in 2013 down from 2.2
percent in 2012. In the United Kingdom growth
is expected to marginally increase from 0.2
percent in 2012 to 0.7 percent in 2013.
Growth in Emerging and Developing Asia is
projected to be robust at 7.1 percent in 2013 up
from 6.6 percent in 2012. This can be attributed
to recovering external demand and continued
growth in domestic demand. The Chinese and
Indian economies are to grow at an accelerated
United States
United Kingdom
Euro Area
Japan
Emerging Asia
Latin America
CIS Economies
MENA
Sub-Saharan Africa
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
