REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2013
10
SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
sound macroeconomic fundamentals in the
region.There is a fear that the civil unrest in Syria
could spread to neighbouring countries, such as
Jordan and Lebanon and the sub-region as well,
which would negatively impact the region as a
whole.
Consequently, it is anticipated that real GDP
growth in the MENA region will decline from 4.8
percent in 2012 to 3.1 percent in 2013. Growth in
the Islamic Republic of Iran will continue to be
negative at -1.3 percent in 2013, down from -1.9
percent in 2012. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also
expected to experience slowdowns in growth
from 6.8 percent and 6.6 percent in 2012, to 4.4
percent and 5.2 percent in 2013, respectively.
Real GDP growth in Morocco and Tunisia is
expected to accelerate to 4.0 percent in 2013,
up from 3.0 percent and 3.6 percent in 2012,
respectively. Real GDP growth in the Egyptian
economy is projected to fall marginally to 2.0
percent in 2013 from 2.2 percent in 2012.
Inflation in the region is expected to remain high
at 9.6 percent in 2013, down from 10.7 percent
in 2012. The Islamic Republic of Iran and Sudan
are expected to experience inflation rates of 27.2
percent and 28.4 percent in 2013 respectively,
down from 30.6 percent and 35.5 percent in
2012. Unemployment in the Islamic Republic of
Iran, Egypt, Tunisia, Sudan and Jordan continues
to be high.
The outlook for the region continues to hinge
on the developments in the Euro Area as well as
the pace of political and economic reforms by
Governments in the region.
constant at the 2012 figure of -1.7 percent in
2013.Additionally, it is anticipated that the region
will run a smaller fiscal deficit of 1.7 percent in
2013 down from 2.7 percent of GDP in 2012; the
lowest since the 2008 fiscal deficit of 1.6 percent
of GDP.
COMMONWEALTH OF
INDEPENDENT STATES (CIS)
3
Economic growth in the CIS region is expected
to remain at the 2012 level of 3.4 percent in 2013.
This is as a result of gradual global recovery,
stable commodity prices and improved financial
conditions. According to the IMF, growth in
Russia is expected to remain at the 2012 figure
of 3.4 percent since the economy is producing at
its potential level.
Consumer inflation in the CIS is expected to
marginally increase from 6.5 percent in 2012
to 6.8 percent in 2013. Inflation in Russia is
anticipated to increase from 5.1 percent in 2012
to 6.9 percent in 2013. Unemployment in Russia
is expected to fall to 4.0 percent in 2013 from
5.5 percent in 2012. The region needs to spur
structural reforms to lift its growth potential.
These reforms include improvement in the
business climate, gas sector reforms as well as
strategically aligned infrastructure investments.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH
AFRICA (MENA)
4
Several of the Governments in the region are
transitional, arising out of the Arab Spring
in 2011. Continued political instability could
hamper much needed policy actions to foster
3
Comprises Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbai-
jan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Armenia,
Tajikistan, Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova.
4
Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Islamic Repub-
lic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania,
Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syrian Arab
Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Republic of
Yemen.
THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
