SOCIAL SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAMME
70
SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
CHAPTER 4: OVERVIEW OF THE SOCIAL SECTOR FOR 2013
70
SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
In the aftermath of the global economic fallout
of 2008 Caribbean countries experienced
mixed fortunes. Suriname continued to be
the best regional performer with the highest
recorded growth at 4.5% based mainly on the
performance of its extractive industries. In
general, the commodity-exporting Caribbean
nations recorded an average growth rate of
3.5%, although in Trinidad and Tobago growth
was somewhat restrained due to maintenance
downtime in the energy sector.
32
Though not as
robust, the tourism dependent countries saw
gradual growth reaching 1.25%, contributing
to an overall growth rate for the Caribbean of
2% which was driven by commodity exports,
and tourism recovery supported by a stronger
United States economy.
33
There has been a gradual turnaround of the
economy, consistent with three consecutive
quarters of growth. Real GDP growth in Trinidad
and Tobago improved from 1% in the fourth
quarter of 2012 to 1.7% in the first quarter of
2013.
34
Resurgence in the non-energy sector
was consistent with increased output by
the manufacturing sector, of which cement
production was a main contributor. The
construction sector continued to show strength
as there was a second spell of growthmeasuring
3% at the end of the first quarter. However,
finance, insurance and real estate led all sectors
with growth of 3.6%. There was also growth in
the agriculture sector, which expanded by 2.6%
in the fourth quarter of 2012.
35
These gains,
32
IMF Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere
33 Updated Economic Overview of Latin America and the
Caribbean 2012, ECLAC
34 Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago/Monetary Policy Report,
April 2013
35 Finance Supplementary Appropriation Bill, June 2013
however, were offset by the expected decline
in the energy sector, output due to scheduled
downtime for maintenance work. As a result of
this, the 2013 fiscal period has been the first
time that the country’s non-energy sector has
outperformed the energy sector.
For the region as whole, unemployment was
6.2%, dropping 0.2% percentage points from
its 6.4% rate in 2012. In this regard, Trinidad
and Tobago was the best performer in the
English speaking Caribbean, as growth in the
non-energy sector contributed to decreasing
unemployment figures. The latest data from
the Central Statistical Office indicate that
unemployment in the country decreased from
5.4% in the first quarter of 2012 to 4.9% at the
end of the second quarter of 2012, which is in
the range of full employment.
36
Despite this,
the Ministry of Labour and Small and Micro
Enterprise Development reported for the first
quarter of 2013 the number of Retrenchment
Notices served increased 18.3% from 186 to
220. The majority of these notices were from the
distribution, print, packaging, insurance, and
finance and real estate sectors.
37
On the other hand, headline inflation decreased
from 12.6% in May 2012 to 5.6% in May 2013.
38
This has been due to more stable domestic
food supplies as result of increased investment
and production in this sector and the removal
of Value Added Tax (VAT) on non-luxury food
items. For fiscal 2013, the projected deficit was
TT$7.6 billion or 4.6% of GDP. As a consequence
of expenditure by the Government, the deficit
increased to TT$9.2 billion from the original
36 Ministry of Finance, First Quarter Budget Report 2013
37 Monetary Policy Report, April 2013
38 Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Planning and
Sustainable Development
CHAPTER 4:
OVERVIEWOFTHE SOCIALSECTOR FOR 2013
