REVIEW OF THE ECONOMY 2013
44
SUSTAINING GROWTH, SECURING PROSPERITY
in 2013 and noted that boosting exploration and
production as well as enlarging downstream
activities, could bolster GDP growth, improve
government finances and reduce sovereigndebt.
Furthermore, their‘AA’transfer and convertibility
(T&C) assessment remains unchanged.
After several years of contraction and near
zero growth, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services
expects GDP growth to exceed 2.0 percent in
2013. Increases in investment in exploration
and production directly influence long-term
growth projections, furthered by government
recently offering more fiscal incentives to
boost oil and gas production. Additionally,
enlarging
downstream
activities
could
reinforce GDP growth, progressively improve
government finances and decrease the debt
burden. Persistent stunted economic growth
and extended fiscal deficits could result upon
failure of government to implement their own
investment strategies or protracted slowdown
in the energy sector thereby weakening the
country’s fiscal and external profiles. In this
case, Standard & Poor’s present ratings can be
affected.
results in a government to debt revenue ratio of
150 percent, on par with Bahrain and Lithuania
and significantly lower than the Bahamas and
Mauritius. Further, Moody’s noted that in the
Caribbean,Trinidad andTobago’s closest peer is
the Bahamas (Baa1 / negative outlook). The
Bahamas has a less favourable external position
than Trinidad and Tobago. This was attributed to
a much faster rate of debt-accumulation since
2009; limited fiscal room to manoeuvre and a
much narrower revenue base.
STANDARD & POOR’S RATINGS
SERVICES
In January 2013, Standard & Poor’s affirmed
its long and short-term sovereign credit ratings
for Trinidad and Tobago at A/A-1 with a Stable
Outlook. This rating is based on the economy’s
stable political system, its generally prudent
framework for macroeconomic policies, low net
general government debt, net external asset
position, and favourable debt profile limiting its
external vulnerability.
The stable outlook reflected the viewof Standard
& Poor’s that the country would resume growth
Table 5:
Trinidad and Tobago Credit Rating History: 2005 -2013 By Standard & Poor’s Ratings
Services
Year
Outlook
Foreign currency
Local currency
Long term Short term Long term Short term
Jan 2013
Stable
A
A-1
A
A-1
Jan 2012
Stable
A
A-1
A
A-1
Aug 2011
Stable
A
A-1
A
A-1
Jan 2011
Stable
A
A-1
A+
A-1
Dec 2009
Stable
A
A-1
A+
A-1
Apr 2009
Negative
A
A-1
A+
A-1
Aug 2008
Stable
A
A-2
A+
A-1
Sep 2007
Positive
A-
A-2
A+
A-1
Aug 2006
Stable
A-
A-2
A+
A-1
Source: Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (2013)
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS
